Review of prospects of the Ukrainian computer & telecommunication market
Deloitte prepared predictions in the field of development of IT-technologies and telecommunications. The main trends of these markets, in opinion of analysts of Deloitte, will be rapid development of the system of mobile payments on the base of NFC-technology (Near Field Communications), limitation of volumes of data transfer (the end of the epoch of unlimited Internet), as well as dynamic growth of the market of tablet PCs.
“By the end of 2013 the number of devices with built-in NFC-technology, will, probably, sharply grow — to 300 million units. Therefore, the important task of cellular operators will be helping buyers in overcoming fear before the use of telephones for payments for goods. Even if 2012 will appear to be only transitional in introduction of the systems of mobile payments, there is a great number of other fields where NFC-technology could be used: from gambling and videogames to healthcare”, consider in Deloitte. The prediction of limitation of volumes of data transfer, according to Deloitte, is explained by the fact that “generosity” of providers in granting unlimited traffic becomes economically unjustified - the volumes of data transfer grow faster then networks themselves, and due to this they should be artificially restrained. “By the end of this year, at least 20 providers, that render services to more than 100 million users in five countries (it constitutes about 20% of 500 million users of broadband networks all over the world) may introduce monthly data rate limits”, assure in the company.
Referring to the growth of the number of tablets per capita, the experts of Deloitte adhere to the formula “two tablets in one hands”. “In 2012 users that already have a tablet will purchase about 5 million tablets and revenue from such sales will reach $2 biilion”, said in the report.
But Ukrainian IT & telecomm experts look at the conclusions of analysts of Deloitte skeptically enough: though with the prediction of demand on tablets they are partly agree, restriction of unlimited access and NFC-technology, in the best case, will only begin to appear in our country next year.
“Services, based on the use of devices with built-in NFC-technology will begin their development on the Ukrainian market not earlier then in 2013, in spite of tendencies on other markets, including neighbouring Russia. This is connected both with certain technological unreadyness of the Ukrainian market and lack of interest among market players to invest in development of this direction. But it could be confidently said that this year services of mobile and electronic payments will continue to develop in Ukraine”, said the analysts of the “Astelit” (TM Life) company.
At present cutting access to the unlimited Internet doesn’t correspond to the interest of Ukrainian providers. It’s due to the fact that now to the global network is connected less than half of population of Ukraine, and, accordingly, operators are advantageous to offer good tariffs and unlimited Internet for attracting new subscribers, simultaneously investing in technologies, development of networks and coverage of new territories.
In relation to demand on tablets, Ukrainian experts have different opinions. Andriy Oksenyuk, senior manager of Deloitte’s representative office in Ukraine, insists that demand on consumer technique, in spite of economic difficulties, is preserved, and in 2012 the new jump of user interest will take place, especially for tablets. But operators of the computer market, globally confirming the demand growth tendency, disagree with enhanced interest of Ukrainians to tablets.
According to y GFK data for the Q3 2011 (at the moment this data is the most fresh), the sales of tablets constituted only miserable share of the general volume of computer sales: in Q3 2011 it was sold 479.3 thousand notebooks (+64% as compared with the previous quarter) and only about 20 thousand tablets. But, it’s true, that tablets showed better growth rate - 105% as compared with the previous quarter. This trend is confirmed as well in the Diawest company, which in 2011 had sales of tablets even worse than expected.
“In fact there is practically no growth of sales of computers and notebooks in Europe and America. Therefore, the new complementing them gadget was released. In Ukraine at the moment the number of PCs isn’t too great to allow people buying additional devices to them. Certainly, there is a segment of well-off buyers that can afford themselves such a gadget. But prediction “two tablets in one hands” for our country is strongly exaggerated”, marks Anatoliy Balyuk, COB of the group of companies “DiaWest – Computer world”.
On the whole, according to evaluation of market participants, by the end of 2012 in Ukraine is expected growth of tablet volume sales by 40% — to 100 thousand tablets, or 500 million UAH.
However on the Ukrainian market exist own, not noticed by the “global look” of Deloitte, trends.
«It doesn’t practically have any information concerning cloud technologies, although it is the hottest subject in a corporate segment. Data of this prediction in relation to development of wireless technologies and mobile payments will be actual for Ukraine not earlier than 2020”, - darkly sums up Yuri Piddubnyak, marketing director of De-Novo.
Translated by Valeriy Stepanenko