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07 May 2012

Review of prospects of the Ukrainian computer & telecommunication market

Deloitte prepared predictions in the field of  development of  IT-technologies and telecommunications. The main trends of these markets, in opinion of analysts of Deloitte, will be rapid  development of the system of mobile payments on the base of NFC-technology  (Near Field Communications), limitation of volumes of  data transfer (the end of the epoch of unlimited Internet), as well as  dynamic  growth of the market of tablet PCs.

“By the end of 2013 the number of devices with built-in NFC-technology, will, probably,  sharply  grow  —  to 300 million units. Therefore,  the important task of cellular operators will be  helping buyers in overcoming fear before the use of  telephones for payments for goods. Even if 2012 will appear to be only transitional in introduction of the systems of  mobile payments, there is a great number of other fields where NFC-technology could be used: from gambling and videogames to healthcare”, consider in Deloitte. The prediction  of limitation of volumes of data transfer, according to Deloitte,  is explained by the fact that “generosity” of providers in granting unlimited traffic becomes economically unjustified - the volumes of data transfer grow faster then  networks themselves, and  due to this they should be artificially restrained. “By the end of this year,  at least 20 providers, that render services to  more than 100 million users in five countries (it constitutes about 20% of 500 million users of broadband networks all over the world) may introduce monthly data rate limits”,  assure in the company.

Referring to the growth of  the number of tablets  per capita,  the experts of Deloitte adhere to the formula “two tablets  in one hands”. “In 2012 users that already have a tablet will purchase about 5 million tablets  and revenue from such sales will reach $2 biilion”,  said in the report.

But Ukrainian IT & telecomm experts look at  the conclusions of analysts of Deloitte skeptically enough: though with the prediction of demand on tablets they are partly agree,  restriction of unlimited  access and NFC-technology, in the best case,  will only  begin to appear in our country next year.

“Services, based on the use of devices with built-in NFC-technology  will begin their development on the Ukrainian market not earlier then in  2013, in spite of tendencies on other markets, including neighbouring Russia. This is connected both with certain technological unreadyness of the Ukrainian market and  lack of interest among market players  to invest in development of this direction. But it could be confidently said that this year  services of mobile and electronic payments will continue to develop in Ukraine”,  said  the analysts of the “Astelit” (TM Life) company.

At present cutting access to the unlimited Internet doesn’t  correspond  to the interest  of  Ukrainian providers. It’s due to the fact that now  to the global network  is connected  less than half of population of Ukraine, and, accordingly, operators are advantageous to offer good tariffs and unlimited Internet for  attracting new subscribers, simultaneously investing in technologies, development of  networks and coverage of new territories.

In relation to demand on tablets,   Ukrainian experts have different opinions. Andriy Oksenyuk, senior manager of Deloitte’s representative office  in Ukraine, insists that demand on  consumer technique, in spite of economic difficulties, is preserved, and in 2012 the new jump of user interest  will take place, especially for tablets. But operators of the computer  market, globally confirming  the demand growth tendency, disagree with  enhanced interest of Ukrainians to tablets.

According to y  GFK data for the Q3 2011 (at the moment this data  is the most fresh), the sales of tablets constituted only miserable share of the general volume of computer  sales: in Q3 2011 it was sold 479.3 thousand notebooks (+64% as compared with the previous quarter) and only about 20 thousand tablets.  But, it’s true, that tablets showed better growth rate - 105% as compared with the previous quarter. This trend is confirmed as well in the Diawest company, which in 2011 had sales of tablets even worse  than expected.

“In fact  there is practically no growth of sales of computers and notebooks in Europe and America. Therefore, the new complementing them gadget was released. In Ukraine at the moment the number of PCs  isn’t  too great to allow  people buying additional devices to them. Certainly, there is a segment of well-off buyers that can  afford themselves  such a gadget. But prediction “two tablets in one hands” for our country is  strongly exaggerated”,  marks Anatoliy Balyuk, COB of the group of companies “DiaWest – Computer world”.

On the whole, according to evaluation of market participants, by the end of 2012 in Ukraine is expected growth of tablet volume sales by 40%  — to 100 thousand tablets, or  500 million UAH.

However on the Ukrainian market exist own, not noticed by the “global look” of Deloitte, trends.

«It doesn’t practically have any  information concerning cloud technologies, although it is the hottest subject in a corporate segment. Data of this prediction in relation to development of wireless technologies and mobile payments will be actual for Ukraine not earlier than 2020”, - darkly  sums up  Yuri Piddubnyak,  marketing director of  De-Novo.

Translated by Valeriy Stepanenko


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